MaxEnt Modeling to Estimate the Impact of Climate Factors on Distribution of Pinus densiflora

Pinus densiflora is an important evergreen coniferous species with both economic and ecological value. It endemic in East Asia. Global climate warming greatly interferes survival. This study explored the impact of change on distribution this relationship between its geographical demand, so as to provide a theoretical basis for protection P. under background global warming. research used 565 valid data points 19 typical climatic environmental factors distributed China, Japan, South Korea. The potential area Asia last glacial maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current situation two scenarios (RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5) future (2050s 2070s) was simulated by MaxEnt model. model toolbox ArcGIS software analyze range densiflora. contribution rates, jackknife test variable response curves were assess importance key factors. receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluate accuracy. had excellent simulation effect (AUC = 0.982). forecast showed that Korean Peninsula Japan highly suitable areas densiflora, little change. Moreover, during LGM, there no large-scale retreat south, it likely survive situ mountain shelters. results suggested may be origin rather than Shandong China. mid-Holocene reduced compared distribution, reduction greater, indicating will have certain negative impacts future. precipitation warmest quarter (Bio18), temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean annual (Bio1) wettest (Bio8) greatest